Mormon Birthrates Seem To Be Decreasing
Mormons have babies. That's the stereotype, right? Let's look at the birth rates.
Introduction
A lot of people have talked about high Mormon birth rates from surveys to Quora and reddit posts to mormon blogs and even published research articles. This article won’t discuss why Mormons have more babies (which is probably a mix of the commandment to “multiply and replenish the earth“, leaders encouragement, and the historic debate of the morality of birth control), but we will discuss how it has changed over time.
Data
I use the data over the pulpit in the church audit reports every April Conference. I also join in the birth rates from the US and world from the World Bank Group.
There are different ways to measure the birth rate, but the rate that I use is the crude measurement that is simply dividing the total population of the group of interest by the total number of births and multiplying by 1000.
Charts
Our first chart shows the number of births (children of record) per 1000 members on record which is clearly decreasing over time. Though decreasing modestly the past 25 years, the birth to members rate is at 1/5 of what it was in the 80s.
Unfortunately, we can’t specifically say that members are having fewer kids because the decrease could be from at least two sources:
A decrease in the birth rate of Mormon families
More Mormons leaving the church. If members leave the church, they may still have their names on the record, but will not have their children recorded on the church records. If they leave at a faster rate than before, it will bloat the total membership number, therefore decreasing the birth rate.
While we can’t say definitively what source is causing the decrease, it is clearly decreasing and likely both sources contribute - which isn’t great news for the Mormon church.
In the graph below, I roughly tried to calibrate the birth rate of World Mormons to the birth to members rate of US Mormons. So, I adjusted the rate to match the 2010 numbers from a survey which saw a ~40% higher birth rate among Mormons against the average US population. The numbers below aren’t truly accurate as they are matched to US number and Mormons outside the US may behave differently, but hopefully it might serve as an educated guess.
Starting from the 90s, we can see the Mormon birth rate has followed in line with national and world numbers - decreasing steadily over time. On the bright side, it does seem like the birthrate is not decreasing as fast as it seems to in the world and national numbers. So, I guess we will see how this all progresses into the future.
Discussion
Is the decrease in Mormon birth rate over time apparent in your experience?