Are More Black Americans Joining The Church In The US?

A surprising chart I came across and the resulting analysis

Photo by Yingchou Han on Unsplash

Introduction

This past week, I came across a very surprising chart that caught me off guard. I’ll show it below…

Interestingly, from 2010 to 2023 Black Americans in Utah have increased 89% - the highest of any state with a starting population of 25,000 Black or more. From this chart, it seems perhaps blacks are moving toward the west coast with strong percent increases in Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington.

Of course, we must always be wary of percent changes because of a bias in larger percents for a smaller starting population.

But, either way, it raises some questions….

• Why is Utah of all states the highest?

• Is it possible that more Black Americans are joining the church and moving to Utah? (Even writing this theory feels absurd)

I will say, having served a mission in Salt Lake City, I noticed that there were many immigrants and refugees from African countries that I interacted with. There is a Swahili LDS branch in Salt Lake where Africans worship. I believe the increase is likely due to these African refugees compared with Black Americans moving, but either way I’m not sure I’ve done a post about Blacks and Mormons of yet. Let’s talk about it…

How Does The Church Do With Black Americans In The US?

The most White religious group is not the Mormons, its actually Jewish followed by Atheists then Mormons. Interestingly, the most racially similar religious group I found to Mormons are the Atheists! Most Blacks are either None or Protestant though there are some dispersed through the other religions as well.

To answer our question, compared to the proportion of Blacks in the US population, Mormons are underperforming a lot (13 vs. 5 points). However, this is similar to other religions excluding Protestants.

Is The Church Becoming More Diverse Over Time In The US?

The answer is yes. The church in the US is becoming more diverse over time - just like the US population. In the last 20 years, Whites are 10 points lower and Blacks and Hispanics are twice as high (2% to 5% and 5% to 11% respectively). It is happening slowly. There are still 10% more white Mormons compared to the white Americans, but change is happening.

If the trend continues as it has in the last 20 years, by 2065 (in 40 years) there will be more non-white members in the US than white. This would be 20 years after the US is projected to become majority non-white. I believe this trend will eventually happen as more and more people intermingle and interracial marriages continue to become less stigmatized. Also, we will see more non-white converts over time in the US. If a random person is baptized in the US, as time continues that random person is more and more likely to be non-white.

See you next week!